Credit Risk Modeling – Beginners

Credit risk infers the possibility of a loss emerging from a borrower’s downfall to pay back a loan or meet contractual commitments. Conventionally, it pertains to the risk arising from lenders’ inability to return the owed interest and principal, impacting the cash flows and increasing assemblage costs.

When any lender extends loans such as mortgages, credit cards, or other similar loans, there is an avoidable risk that the borrower will not repay the loan amounts. Furthermore, if a company offers such credit to the customer, there’s the same risk that the customer will not pay back. It also incorporates other related risks, such as that the bond issuer may not make payment at the time of maturity and the risk occurring out of the incapacity of the insurance company to compensate for the claim. A higher level of credit risk in a profitable market will correlate with the elevated borrowing cost. Because of this, it is evaluated technically to mitigate such risk to a certain level.

We will start with a brief introduction to measures of credit risk modeling. Understanding the credit risk and how it is being measured is important before we into the meat of the module. Then, we will talk about traditional credit models in length. And in the next section, we will give you practical examples of traditional credit models. In the same section, we will also talk about the structural model of credit risk. Since understanding the theory isn’t enough, we will also take an example of the structural model of credit risk. Next, we will teach you Altman Z-score. In this section, you will learn about Altman Z-score and how you can calculate the Z-score. Then, we will talk about the Z-score of the airline industry. And then, we will also take a practical example of the US airline industry and discuss the airline industry Z-score. Then, under the same section, we will talk about the credit rating description of the airlines. Now, we will directly go into credit analysis. Under credit analysis, you will learn credit modeling, the evaluation metric in credit modeling, and also the early warning checklist in credit modeling. Then, we will teach you UFCE and WC Credit Modeling. Next, we will look at the financial statement analysis (the income statement, the balance sheet, the cash flow statement) in detail. Finally, we will talk about ways out analysis and internal ratings. In the end, we will show you the reference files to end the module. You need to keep in mind that this training will work if you do the work.

Curriculum

1. Introduction

2. Traditional Credit Models

3. Example of Traditional Credit Model

4. Example of Structural Model of Credit Risk

5. Altman Z-Score

6. Credit Analysis

7. UFCE and WC Credit Modelling

8. Financial Statement

9. Ways Out Analysis and Internal Ratings